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While the banking industry is thought by many to be a fairly
slow growth sector of the overall economy, its historical outperformance of
broader market indices is a little known fact. The banking industry generates
fairly stable earnings at an 8% - 11% growth rate each year and has done so
for the past 30 years. Bank stocks can also yield dividend returns of 2% - 4%.
Thus, average annual total returns have historically ranged from 10% - 15%
compared to broader market returns averaging 10% over the same 30-year period.
Historically, the banking and financial services sector has
represented between 12% and 22% of broader market indices. This relationship
is largely a function of the relative earnings contribution to the index.
During times of lethargic corporate earnings, banks and financials have tended
to play a greater role due to their fairly stable revenue and earnings growth
trends. Initial investor reaction would be to underweight all sectors.
This long-term historical outperformance through up markets,
down markets and flat markets gives the thoughtful investor good reason to
question the so-called conventional wisdom that bank stocks are supposedly
only a cyclical play.
Further, as a result of ongoing industry consolidation, each
year approximately 200-300 bank institutions are involved in mergers or
acquisitions. Publicly traded bank stocks on either side of such transactions
can offer further opportunity to the savvy investor.
These are among the reasons that RASARA believes that bank stocks should be
a part of any broad pension fund strategy.
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